Global life expectancy projections have yielded mixed results, with some more pessimistic and bleak, and others more optimistic. Please keep in mind that they are all estimated predictions, nothing is “set in stone” and it is difficult to judge the future with complete certainty.
All estimates and forecasts, both conservative and forward-looking, cannot be conclusively determined and many factors can and will change. But with a little help on our part, we can steer them in a more favorable direction. Some of these changes include making healthier daily choices when it comes to what you eat, how much you eat, how much physical activity you do, how you deal with stress, and other lifestyle habits. Some things are as simple as doing.
This research Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2021 The paper, published in The Lancet, predicts that global life expectancy will increase by 4.2 years by 2050, despite geopolitical, metabolic and environmental threats. These increases are projected to be largest in countries with lower life expectancies, which will contribute to convergence in life expectancy increases across the region. This trend will be driven by improved public health measures aimed at preventing and improving survival of cardiovascular diseases and various communicable, maternal, neonatal and nutritional diseases (CMNN).
This study shows that the disease burden continues to shift towards non-communicable diseases (NCDs) such as cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and NCD-related risks such as obesity, high risk Indicates that exposure to the agent is present. Blood pressure, substandard diet, and smoking have the greatest impact on the burden of disease in future generations. As the burden continues to shift from CMNNS to NCDs, and from years of life lost (YLL) to years lived with disability (YLD), more people are projected to live longer, but this increase is due to This is due to the increasing number of years spent in poor conditions.
The study predicts that global life expectancy will increase from 73.6 years in 2022 to 78.1 years in 2050 (an increase of 4.5 years). Global healthy life expectancy (HALE), the average number of years a person can expect to live in good health, is expected to increase from 64.8 years in 2022 to 67.4 years in 2050 (an increase of 2.6 years). . To reach these conclusions, this study estimates cause-specific mortality rates. YLL; YLD; disability-adjusted life year (DALY, or years of healthy life lost due to poor health and premature death). Life expectancy; his HALE covering 204 countries and territories from 2022 to 2050.
“In addition to increasing overall life expectancy, we found that disparities in life expectancy between regions also decreased,” said Dr. Chris Murray, director of health metrics science and director of the Health Metrics Institute at the University of Washington. and evaluation (IHME). “This shows that although health disparities between the highest and lowest income regions remain, they are narrowing, with the largest increases expected in sub-Saharan Africa.”
These findings are based on the results of the GBD 2021 Risk Factors Study, which was also published in The Lancet. Ancillary research They found that total years lost to poor health and premature death (measured in DALYs) due to metabolic risk factors have increased by 50% since 2000. It also suggests alternative scenarios to compare potential outcomes if different public health interventions are implemented. It was introduced to eliminate exposure to several key risk factors by 2050.
“We predict large differences in the global DALY burden across different alternative scenarios to see what most influences overall life expectancy data and DALY projections,” the study says. said Dr. Stein Emil Vollset, first author and head of the GBD Collaborative Research Unit. Norwegian Institute of Public Health. “Globally, the predicted effects are strongest for the ‘improved behavioral and metabolic risks’ scenario, with the disease burden (DALY number) will decrease by 13.3%.”
Two scenarios with more favorable outcomes were proposed, one focused on a safer environment and the other on improving pediatric nutrition. Dr. Murray said the greatest opportunity to accelerate reductions in the global disease burden everywhere in the world is through public policy interventions designed to prevent and reduce lifestyle behavioral and metabolic risk factors. It is explained that.
“There is an enormous opportunity to influence the future of global health by getting ahead of the increasing risks associated with these metabolic and dietary risk factors, especially behavioral and lifestyle factors such as hyperglycemia, high BMI, and hypertension. We are waiting,” Dr. Murray concluded.
