Participants at the Regional Food Crisis Prevention and Control Mechanism (PREGEC) meeting for the Sahel and West Africa, held in Lomé, Togo, from 20 to 22 March 2024, will discuss the final results of the 2023-2024 agro-pastoral season. , made the following observations about market dynamics and the outlook for food and nutrition security:
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The 2023-2024 agricultural season ended with grain production reaching 77 million tonnes, down 0.6% year-on-year but up 4% compared to the average of the past five years. This was mainly due to significant production declines in Niger (-5.5%), Nigeria (-5.7%) and Chad (-7.2%), which were further exacerbated by prolonged drought and flooding. The grain balance sheet for the busy farming season shows a grain deficit of 12 million tonnes, with per capita grain availability in the region down 2% compared to last year. Regional root vegetable and tuber production reached 206 million tons, an increase of 4% compared to the previous year and 8% compared to the five-year average. As far as cash crops are concerned, the production of cowpea, voinzu, coffee and cocoa decreased by 6% to 13% compared to the previous year, with the exception of a general increase in production.
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The large deficits observed in Chad, Niger, Mauritania, Mali and Senegal highlight the disparities in feed production in the region. In other countries in the Sahel region and West Africa, biomass production was normal or in excess.
However, the pastoral off-season began early in January as available feed resources deteriorated rapidly in feed-starved countries. The same was true in surplus countries due to forest fires and strong pressure from herds concentrated in areas still accessible to human-converted herds. Overall, the health situation of the animals remained calm. However, in addition to regular outbreaks, an outbreak of avian influenza was declared in Burkina Faso. As far as water supply to livestock is concerned, in most pastoral areas the level of water supply to ponds is satisfactory. Livestock movements are affected by cross-border transfer bans that are still in place in some receiving countries. Insecurity has exacerbated barriers to pastoral movement, making certain areas inaccessible, leading to altered itineraries and abnormal concentration of livestock in safer areas. These herd concentrations are primarily found on the outskirts of urban areas, creating moderate to high tension around watering holes and farms.
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Overall, the functioning of agricultural markets has been disrupted, particularly in areas affected by civil wars and the Eastern Basin of Nigeria, Niger and Chad, with lower-than-usual supply and increased household demand.
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Prices for major staple grains continue to rise across the region, ranging from 10% to more than 100% compared to five-year averages. Grain price increases are even more pronounced in Ghana, Sierra Leone and Nigeria, particularly in regions where security is unstable and supply is more difficult. Currency inflation due to economic difficulties remains the main driver of price fluctuations in Ghana (23%), Nigeria (30%), Sierra Leone (54%), Liberia (10%) and Gambia (16%). Overall inflation in the region remains very high (21% compared to 18% in January 2023). Additionally, other major factors such as the increase in fuel prices in Nigeria, which directly impacts transportation costs, sanctions imposed on Niger, and various restrictions introduced by several countries also have a significant impact on the rise in food prices. I am. To reduce cross-border flows of agricultural and livestock products.
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In the livestock market, livestock prices remain generally higher than the average of the past five years, with the exception of Niger, where there was a decline due to difficulties in exporting livestock to Nigeria and Benin. Due to soaring grain prices, the terms of trade between livestock and grain are rapidly deteriorating, which is having a negative impact on the livelihoods of livestock farmers.
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In the international market, food prices remain high despite the continuing downward trend in price indexes. In addition, disruptions to maritime transport via the Red Sea and rising shipping and insurance costs could affect the delivery of rice, sugar and palm oil from Asian countries to the Sahel and West Africa.
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The latest analysis of acute malnutrition shows that the nutritional situation remains very worrying, with more than two-thirds of the regions analyzed in the acute (phase 3) or critical (phase 4) nutritional status. state. Furthermore, the number of malnourished children in the region continues to rise, reaching unprecedented levels with an estimated 16.7 million children under the age of five suffering from acute malnutrition. The nutritional status of pregnant and lactating women is also a cause for concern in several countries.
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The food and nutrition situation in the region remains of great concern. The overall results of the Cadre Harmonisé analysis show that 38.1 million people in the Sahel, West Africa and Cameroon are currently severely food and nutrition insecure (Phase 3 or higher), out of a total of 401.1 million people analyzed. ing.
Unless appropriate measures are taken, this number could rise to 52 million between June and August 2024, including 31.7 million in Nigeria, 3.4 million in Niger and 3.4 million in Chad. 3.3 million, 2.7 million in Burkina Faso, 2.4 million in Cameroon, and 1.6 million in Sierra Leone. 1.3 million people in Mali, about 1 million in Ghana, 2.4 million people in the region are in a state of emergency (stage 4), and more than 2,500 people in the Menaka region of Mali face a situation of disaster (stage 5). there is a possibility. In this connection, an analysis by Executive Harmonize also shows that of the approximately 1.2 million Sudanese refugees residing in Chad, approximately 420,000 will be left without food if appropriate measures are not taken to help specific populations. It also indicates the possibility of a nutritional crisis (stage 3 or higher). -
The deteriorating food and nutrition situation is the result of a number of factors, including persistent insecurity (in the Lake Chad basin, Liptako-Gourma, northwest and central Nigeria, northern Cameroon and English-speaking regions). In addition to disrupting the local economy, the worsening security situation is causing large-scale population movements. The region is home to more than 2.4 million refugees and asylum seekers, mainly from Chad (1.1 million), Cameroon (489,000), and Niger (306,000), and mainly from Nigeria. More than 8 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) live in the country, mainly 3.5 million people. ), Burkina Faso (2 million people), Cameroon (1.1 million people), Mali, Niger and Chad (UNHCR, IOM). Additionally, difficult economic conditions and rising food prices make it difficult for vulnerable populations to access markets and adequate nutritious food. Managing tensions arising from co-living between indigenous communities and internally displaced persons has become a further challenge important to ensure equitable access to food and promote the development of viable socio-economic activities. .
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Mitigation measures envisioned by each country are designed to improve people’s access to food, address malnutrition among children, breastfeeding and pregnant women, and protect livelihoods. Burkina Faso, Benin, Ivory Coast and Mali are planning measures to respond to a food crisis during the 2024 bad harvest season to prevent the collapse of vulnerable people’s livelihoods.
However, there are fewer resources allocated to these interventions in 2024 compared to the 2023 plan.
