Joint Monitoring Report (JMR) modeling using data up to January 2024 shows that both Government of Yemen (GoY) and Ansar Allah (AA) controlled areas are at risk of experiencing a deterioration to IPC 4+. It shows that 2.5 million people live in an area. This was a similar number to the previous JMR modeling in October 2023. Drought indicators resulted in four critical risk alerts in four different districts, while exchange rate, displacement and conflict risk indicators resulted in a total of 150 high risk alerts in 128 districts (see Table 1) .
In February 2024, the IPC released a new analytical update for GoY-controlled territories 1 covering the period October 2023 to February 2024, with the population of IPC 3 and IPC 4 increasing from 3.9 million to 460. It showed an 18% increase in 20,000 people. This was compared to an earlier analysis that covered forecasts from June to December 2023. The JMR model also identified an increase in those at risk of experiencing deterioration to IPC phase 4 in his JMR in December (see Appendix IV).
As reported in the IPC analysis, worsening food insecurity in government-controlled areas is driven by worsening economic conditions, continued localized conflict, and reduced and irregular declines in humanitarian food aid. . These events undid some of the progress achieved in 2023 following the end of the ceasefire period.
In January 2024, the JMR model has raised 4 severe red alerts and 1 red alert for drought in Abyan, Al Bayda, Hajjah, and Taiz governorates. Mild vegetation stress was observed particularly in Abyan, Al Baydah, Rahi, Sada, and Taiz. December was particularly dry, but not a drought.
In January 2024, the average monthly depreciation rate of the Yemeni rial in government-controlled areas reached 1,552 yen/US$1, the lowest since December 2021, and a warning was issued in all 136 government-controlled areas.
Due to the impact of Cyclone Tej, which made landfall in Yemen in October 2023 and caused flash floods, 10 evacuation warnings were strengthened in January 2024 in affected areas of Al Mahara and Hadramaut governorates. .
According to WHO, from January 1 to March 17, 2024, 1,566 suspected cholera cases were recorded in 15 states, including nine confirmed cases and six deaths. Preparation is key to addressing the causes of cholera before the start of the rainy season in April. However, challenges to implementing preventive measures persist due to low vaccine supplies and resources. In 2023, Yemen experienced outbreaks of measles, dengue fever, diphtheria, polio, and acute watery diarrhea, straining already weakened health systems and placing financial strain on poor households.
The US and UK launched Operation Poseidon Archer in January 2024 in response to anti-aircraft attacks on ships in the Red Sea since November 2023. Despite these efforts, AA attacks continued. There have also been conflicts in the country involving various forces, including the Southern Transitional Council (STC)’s Shabwani Defense Force, the Giant Brigades, and the AA Army. The incidents occurred in the main districts of Shabwa and Al-Bayda, with the deployment of reinforcements and heavy fighting highlighting the strategic importance of these areas. Inter-tribal conflicts and isolated attacks also further destabilized the security situation.
FAO and WFP observed that as of February 2024, inappropriate food consumption had decreased slightly year-on-year to less than 10%. However, between November 2023 and February 2024, inappropriate food consumption significantly worsened in AA-managed areas except Al Mahwit, Dhamar, Sanaa and Sanaa City. Among former WFP beneficiary households that have not received assistance since December 2023, acute food insecurity increased from 24% in November 2023 to 38% in February 2024. In January 2024, WFP reported that 55% of surveyed households in government-controlled areas reported receiving insufficient food. access to food.
The attacks, the first in the Red Sea since November 2023, have prompted changes in global shipping routes, with ships avoiding the region and opting instead for long-distance voyages via the Cape of Good Hope. This route change increased the time and cost of the voyage. The war risk premium has increased to a maximum of 1% of the ship’s value. However, so far there has been no negative impact on imports to Yemen. Food and fuel imports increased in January, but food prices remained stable. As tensions continue, the JMR team continues to closely monitor import trends and food price fluctuations to assess risks to Yemen’s food and nutrition security.
